Predicting the future of years 2005 - 2025

World population exceeds 8 billion: 95%
World population exceeds 12 billion: 20%
China's GDP growth averages 5%+ per year: 60%
USA sends a man to the Moon: 20%
USA sends a man to Mars: < 1%
Average female life expectancy exceeds 90 years: 25%
Worldwide military budgets grow 6%+ per year: 60%
South American wheat production declines: 30%
Oil exceeds $100 per barrel: 15%
Elvis returns and he looks grrrreat: < 1%
Cathode-ray tube (CRT) monitors and televisions are no longer manufactured. 90%
Computer clock rates reach the 50 GHz mark: 60%
Computer clock rates hit a physical limit beyond which no substantial increase is possible: 5%
Thousands of people implant computer hardware in their brains: 20%
An intelligent computer is destroyed, and the police treat it as a homicide: < 1%
The USA officially abandons imperial measurements and goes metric: 60%
Fewer than 50% of the US population is of European extraction: 40%
Spanish is established as an official language of government in California: 20%
Some Indian corporations outsource their call centers to the United States: 11%
China becomes fully democratic: 80%
China wages war on Taiwan: 35%
China succeeds in absorbing Taiwan: 13%
A new Republic of Kurdistan gains international recognition: 20%
Turkey joins the European Union: 50%
Russia joins the European Union: 33%
At least one country withdraws from the European Union: 9%
The USA withdraws from the United Nations: 3%
No new cases of smallpox are reported from 2005 through 2025: 90%
The flu virus mutates and hardens into a lethal threat: 40%
Stem-cell research yields no appreciable results by 2025: 25%
Scientists develop an effective treatment for most forms of cancer: 10%
Cosmetic surgeons carry out face transplants on wealthy clients: 2%
The USA continues to have the world's largest GDP: 95%
Brazil exports more wheat than the United States: 50%
Argentina's GDP exceeds that of Italy: 10%
The marathon world record is under 2 hours: 40%
The 100m sprint world record is under 9.5 seconds: 10%
An African nation competes at the Winter Olympics: 70%
An African city makes a successful bid to host the Summer Olympics: 25%
The NFL approves some steroids for routine use by its players: 15%
No athlete fails a doping test at the 2024 Olympics: < 1%
Microsoft operating systems power fewer than 90% of desktop computers: 95%
Microsoft operating systems power fewer than 50% of desktop computers: 60%
The world's richest man is a Chinese citizen: 30%
Worldwide oil production is higher in 2025 than in 2005: 45%
Worldwide coal production is higher in 2025 than in 2005: 70%
The total sales receipts of the video-game industry are higher than those of the film industry: 66%
US book sales in 2025 are less than 90% of their 2005 level: 80%
US book sales in 2025 are less than 50% of their 2005: 40%
The Golden Globes are widely acknowledged as more important than the Oscars: 10%
The Sundance Festival is widely acknowledged as more important than the Oscars: 3%
The cost of a recreational space flight drops under $1 million: 75%
A vacation resort is built on the moon: 15%
Sedans outsell SUVs in the United States: 50%
Fewer than 50% of new automobiles are powered by gasoline-only engines: 75%
A 100-kilometer electric charge for the average automobile costs less than the equivalent amount of gasoline: 60%
5% of the mammal, bird, and fish species known in 2005 are extinct by 2025: 80%
25% of the mammal, bird, and fish species known in 2005 are extinct by 2025: 25%
The United States joins the Kyoto Protocol: 50%
The oceans rise and wash away part of the Netherlands: 50%
Over 60% of email traffic consists of spam: 90%
Over 90% of email traffic consists of spam: 40%
In an effort to curb spam, the US government imposes an email tax of 1 cent or so per message on Internet service providers: 10%
The cheapest digital camera that isn't a toy has an optical resolution of at least 10 megapixels: 95%
The picture quality of the best digital cameras equals that of the best film cameras: 75%
Fewer than 1,000,000 film cameras are manufactured worldwide in 2025: 60%
Skin-tight synthetic clothing is popular: 66%
Transparent clothing is popular: 33%
Expensive sneakers use motorized springs to make you run faster: 50%
Desktop 3-D printers can output simple manufactured goods: 20%
Maggots are routinely used to disinfect wounds: 85%
Swarms of micro-scale robots carry out surgical procedures inside the body: 60%
Swarms of nano-scale robots fight diseased cells inside the body: 3%
At least 25% of American wheat is grown from genetically modified strains: 60%
Gay marriage is legalized in at least one American state: 30%
Gay marriage is legalized throughout the US by federal law: 10%
Fewer than 20% of US adults smoke cigarettes: 66%
Tobacco use is federally prohibited: 3%
Marijuana is declared legal for recreational use in at least one American state: 35%
Alcohol is federally prohibited: 1%
Over 50% of US marriages end in divorce: 75%
Over 60% of US marriages end in divorce: 20%
The Supreme Court decides that marriage is a private matter in which the law should not intervene: 15%
The Supreme Court decides that women may go topless wherever men are permitted to do so: 30%
Switzerland joins the European Union: 75%
The European Union musters an army of its own: 90%
Quebec secedes from Canada: 30%
Quebec secedes from Canada but changes its mind and rejoins a few years later: 10%
Alberta secedes from Canada and joins the United States: 3%
By 2025, the Democratic Party has regained control of the Presidency and of both houses of Congress for at least one term: 60%
The US election law is changed so that Arnold Schwarzenegger and other naturalized US citizens may run for the Presidency: 25%
Hillary Clinton has been elected President: 14%
The Green Party has sent a Representative to Congress: 2%
The Libertarian Party outperforms the Republicans or Democrats in a Presidential election: 1%
The Irish Republican Army ceases to exist as a meaningful force: 33%
The Basque separatist movement ETA ceases to exist as a meaningful force: 25%
Several countries engage in military action to secure mining or drilling rights in Antarctica: 25%
A sovereign state is established in Antarctica: 10%
India and Pakistan go to war over Kashmir: 77%
The Kashmir struggle is permanently resolved with a peace treaty: 20%
Pakistan detonates a nuclear weapon in anger: 6%
North Korea detonates a nuclear weapon in anger: 4%
Israel detonates a nuclear weapon in anger: 2%
South Korea and North Korea merge into a united Korean republic: 25%
Japan, Taiwan, and Thailand form an Asian Union to compete with the European Union: 40%
Australia joins the Asian Union: 25%
China declares war on Russia: 17%
China declares war on Japan: 14%
A species that died out within the past 200 years is brought back through biotechnology: 30%
A dinosaur species is brought back through biotechnology: 3%
Cosmetic dentistry has mastered the science of growing teeth: 60%
Cloning gains widespread acceptance as a way to resurrect deceased pets: 80%
Cloning gains widespread acceptance as a way to resurrect deceased children: 5%
Cloning gains widespread acceptance as a way to resurrect deceased CEOs of major corporations: 0.5%
Most HIV-positive people in the United States can enjoy normal life spans with constant pharmacological therapy: 92%
Most HIV-positive people in Africa can enjoy normal life spans with constant pharmacological therapy: 2%
The American government institutes Canadian-style socialized health care: 33%
Top surgeons sell their services on web-based auction sites: 60%
The US Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade: 40%
Parents in 2025 routinely use genetic screening to choose some physical attributes of their newborn children: 88%
Parents in 2025 routinely use genetic screening to choose some psychological attributes of their newborn children: 33%
Advances in gene therapy mean that the children of 2025 will never go bald: 1%
Advances in herbal medicine mean that you can actually buy pills online that make your breasts rounder or your abs firmer: < 1%
One US dollar is worth more than one Euro: 90%
One Canadian dollar is worth more than one US dollar: 30%
One Euro is worth more than two US dollars: 13%
The US budget is balanced in 2025: 60%
The US national debt decreases in real value between 2005 and 2025: 20%
In 2025, the value of US exports exceeds the value of its imports: 10%
The highest US income-tax bracket has a rate greater than 50%: 66%
The highest US income-tax bracket has a rate less than 40%: 10%
By executive decree, the IRS institutes a flat-rate income tax: 3%
The government institutes a national sales tax: 60%
The Dow Jones Industrial Average no longer includes IBM among its components: 42%
At least one new component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is an Internet-era company founded in the 1990s: 84%
The Nasdaq index becomes more widely recognized than the Dow Jones: 30%
The Standard & Poor's 500 index becomes more widely recognized than the Dow Jones: 15%
Pennies are withdrawn from US circulation: 90%
Nickels are withdrawn from US circulation: 60%
The one-dollar bill is withdrawn from US circulation: 40%
All coins are withdrawn from US circulation: 10%
All cash is withdrawn from US circulation: < 1%
The Yankees win the World Series at least three times between 2005 and 2025: 40%
The Red Sox win the World Series more often than the Yankees between 2005 and 2025: 10%
A minority of NFL quarterbacks in the 2025 draft are white: 75%
A majority of NBA players come from outside the United States: 60%
A professional sports team attracts a player with a contract worth $1 billion or more: 55%
Dressage is eliminated as an Olympic event: 40%
Squash is added as an Olympic event: 15%
Billiards is added as an Olympic event: 1%
China wins more Olympic gold medals between 2008 and 2024 than any other nation: 85%
China wins a gold medal in Olympic basketball: 60%
The United States soccer team reaches the World Cup semi-finals: 15%
American Major League Soccer draws a greater audience than the NHL: 40%
The NFL awards a franchise to a Canadian city: 23%
The NHL awards a franchise to a Mexican city: 6%
Basketball players have become so tall that the NBA increases the regulation basketball height to keep the game interesting: 4%
Digital postage replaces 95% of postage stamps: 90%
First-class letter mail declines by 50%: 85%
The United States Postal Service is privatized: 50%
Venice sinks at least 6 inches: 70%
The Tower of Pisa topples: 5%
Venice sinks out of sight: < 1%
Chinese-made automobiles are sold in the United States: 95%
Chinese-made automobiles account for at least 5% of the US market: 60%
Chinese-made automobiles outsell Japanese-made ones in the United States: 16%
French automobiles return to the US market in a big way: 6%
At least one American make of automobile is manufactured by robots alone, without any human intervention: 40%
A serious traffic accident is provably caused by a software bug in a car's on-board computer: 60%
The conventional broadcast networks control less than 50% of the commercial television market: 85%
Low-resolution commercial television is phased out entirely in favor of HDTV broadcasts: 75%
At least one commercial television station broadcasts mainly over the Internet: 55%
Satellite radio controls over 50% of the commercial radio market: 22%
The digital version of the New York Times outsells the paper version: 70%
More local calls are placed over the Internet than through analog phone lines: 20%
More international calls are placed over the Internet than through analog phone lines: 35%
A popular new music-video performer is actually a lifelike digital animation: 70%
A popular new Hollywood actor is actually a lifelike digital animation: 40%
Boy bands are a thing of the past: 20%
Heavy metal is a thing of the past: 5%
A Bach remix reaches the top of the charts: 2%
More than 50% of music albums are sold digitally through the Internet: 95%
The average cost of a music album is greater than $10: 90%
More than 50% of digital music albums are pirated rather than purchased: 33%
Flying cars become a reality: 10%
Flying carpets become a reality: 1%
Teleportation becomes a reality: < 1%
A light railway is built in Manhattan: 77%
A monorail is built in Manhattan: 44%
The light railway is shut down in Los Angeles: 22%
In 2025, there are 7,000,000 car accidents in the US: 90%
The number of alcohol-related traffic accidents declines between 2005 and 2025: 60%
Bicycle helmets are mandatory in most US cities: 80%
Pedestrian helmets are mandatory in some US cities: 3%
The water level of the Colorado River drops too far to permit further diversion for agricultural irrigation: 90%
Canada exports water from its underground reserves to US cities: 75%
Saudi Arabia imports icebergs from Antarctica to bolster its water supply: 45%
The ocean becomes too saline to support some aquatic species: 20%
The average global temperature rises by 0.5 degree Celsius between 2005 and 2025: 60%
The average global temperature rises by 1.0 degree Celsius between 2005 and 2025: 20%
Global warming begins to decline thanks to efforts to curb greenhouse-gas emissions: 50%
Global warming begins to decline due to the onset of an ice age: 13%
Global temperatures drop so much that the CFC ban is lifted and consumers are urged to use aerosol sprays as much as possible: < 1%
Most youth in 2025 believe that they are the most important generation in world history: 99%
Most adults in 2025 know that they are not the most important generation in world history: 99%
The Southern swarms of killer bees never advance far enough into the United States to cause a problem: 90%
As in the 19th century, a plague of Rocky Mountain locusts afflicts the American Midwest: 33%
As in the Old Testament, a plague of frogs afflicts the Midwest: < 1%
The end of the world is brought about by a man-made disaster: 0.1%
The end of the world is brought about by a natural disaster: 0.01%